What we know through CFB's Week 4, plus Kamario Taylor's rise and Michigan's karma

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  Kyle BonaguraSep 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ET

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  • Covers college football.
  • Joined ESPN in 2014.
  • Attended Washington State University.

There is a temptation in college football to assign meaning to everything.

All year.

Transfers. Coaching changes. Recruiting classes. Spring games. Fall camp reports.

There are national preseason polls, conference preseason polls and preseason all-conference teams. We rank recruiting classes before the players arrive on campus and transfer classes before anyone knows how those players will fit together. For roughly eight months, the sport runs on speculation.

A complex explanation isn't needed for why all of this exists.

It's entertaining. It's fun. And most of the time, none of it really matters. Every year, we joke about how meaningless the preseason polls are. Coaches preach it, regardless of where their teams show up.

Usually, by the quarter pole of the season, those preseason predictions look foolish.

This year, that has kinda been the case. The top two teams in the preseason poll, Ohio State and Oregon, are not undefeated. Oklahoma, the preseason No. 10, will almost certainly not be ranked when the next poll is released, and the same goes for preseason No. 8 Texas A&M -- both teams have two losses.

It's significant that 40% of the top-10 hasn't met expectations, but despite that, it doesn't feel like the sport has been thrown into anything approaching chaos. For some of the movement at the top, the preseason consensus has mostly held up.

Eleven of the preseason top 25 remain undefeated. Collectively, those 25 teams have won 82.7% of their games. The order has changed. But the broad group of teams we thought would shape the season largely still is.

Part of that is because the first few weeks didn't give us many chances to test our assumptions but on Saturday, that changed. There were six games between ranked teams, making Week 4 the most revealing of the season so far.

Even after losing Dante Moore, Oregon showed there is still a gap between the Ducks and USC for West Coast supremacy. LSU bounced back from its emotional loss to Ole Miss by beating Texas A&M, while the Rebels looked hung over in a 52-28 loss to Florida. Texas survived another close one against Tennessee. Kamario Taylor's breakout season continued in Mississippi State's win against Missouri. And Michigan's luck finally ran out against Iowa.

A quarter of the way into the season here is what we think we know:

Indiana is not a flash in the pan: Friday night's 29-23 triumph over Northwestern wasn't comprehensive, but that win might look better in a few weeks. After last year's national championship, it was fair to wonder if that level of success in Bloomington was sustainable. So far, there remains no reason to bet against Curt Cignetti.

Miami is the safest playoff pick: The Hurricanes might be better than the team that went to the national title game last season and have one ranked opponent left on the schedule in No. 3 Notre Dame on Nov. 7. They improved at quarterback with Darian Mensah, and receiver Malachi Toney is as dangerous with the ball in his hands as anyone in the country.

North Dakota State is a playoff threat in its first year in FBS: After winning 10 FCS national titles in 15 years, the Bison (4-0) finally made the jump to FBS this year and have a real shot at reaching the playoff. Here's a game to circle: NDSU at New Mexico on Oct. 24.

The SEC is up for grabs: Texas is the default No. 1 because it has the best win, but the Longhorns are also a couple plays away from being 2-2. Had Tennessee been able to execute its final drive Saturday like Iowa did against Michigan, the 'Horns would have gone down. Meanwhile, Georgia has been dominant, Alabama has been explosive, while Mississippi State and Florida are also undefeated. Good luck trying to rank everyone else with any confidence, other than Arkansas being at the bottom.

So is the Big 12: BYU, Texas Tech and Utah are the conference's top tier, but Cincinnati (4-0) is also off to an encouraging start. The problem for the Bearcats is their schedule: They play BYU, Tech, Utah and Houston -- the conference's four ranked teams -- plus Arizona, West Virginia and Iowa State. This could be the year the Big 12 gets two teams in the playoff.

Hopefully, most of these observations are obsolete in a few weeks.

Predictability is boring. Boring is the enemy of fun.

The best seasons are the ones that force us to keep questioning what we think we know. A few other things from Week 4 that caught our attention.

Jump to:
Oregon's statement win
Kamario Taylor's rise
Michigan's karma
What's going on with JKS?
Closing bell

Oregon responds to loss of Moore with statement win

Oregon trailed USC 7-3 early in the second quarter when quarterback Dante Moore scrambled for a first time, entered into a slide and received a vicious hit to the helmet by USC linebacker Desman Stephens II, whiplashing his helmet into the grass. It was textbook targeting. The type of shot the sport has been trying to eradicate from the game for years. Stephens was deservedly ejected, while Moore required a trip to the hospital.

It's football. Violent collisions happen, even ones like this that cross the line. Where Stephens strayed into unacceptable territory was what came next.

With Moore laid out on the grass, Stephens celebrated on the field. Then, as medical personnel tended to Moore, television cameras caught Stephens smiling on the sideline.

It was enough to make a neutral observer develop a rooting interest.

Quarterback Dylan Raiola, the transfer from Nebraska, was brilliant in relief of Moore. He threw a touchdown pass to close that initial drive and finished 19 of 25 passes for 289 yards and another score. USC would never regain the lead, as Trojans proved once again they are not made for big moments.

The rise of Kamario Taylor

Coming into the season, the idea that Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor would be a serious Heisman contender wasn't something the sportsbook thought was realistic. A month ago, anyone could have placed a Heisman bet on Taylor and received odds somewhere in the range of 150-to-1.

Not anymore.

After leading the Bulldogs to a 31-24 win against Missouri on Saturday, Taylor is now among the favorites. At DraftKings, his odds are at +480, making him the No. 3 favorite behind Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith (+245) and Miami quarterback Darian Mensah (+400). This makes Taylor the biggest breakout star of the season.

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Kamario Taylor throws 24-yard touchdown

Taylor was excellent against the Tigers. He completed 27 of 38 passes for 360 yards with three touchdowns -- including the game-winner with 3:57 left -- and led the team back from a 24-17 fourth-quarter deficit. It was the Bulldogs' most meaningful win of the season, but also -- to show how good he was in the other three games -- his least efficient performance, statistically. Through four games, he has completed 69.2% of his passes with 1,192 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions.

If MSU can upset Alabama next week, he'll be a household name.

Michigan and a different kind of karma

When Iowa quarterback Hank Brown connected with Addison Ostrenga for a 29-yard pass, it appeared the Hawkeyes were out of time. Technically, they had two seconds, but was that enough to get to the line, spike the ball and leave time for a game-winning touchdown from 16 yards out? Maybe, but the odds were stacked against them. With no timeouts, it would all have to be done on the fly.

Then fate stepped in.

Michigan defensive lineman John Henry Daley was injured on the play, meaning the clock stopped and the Hawkeyes had a chance to discuss the final play. We'll never know the difference that made, but the end result won't be forgotten any time soon. Brown found Reece Vander Zee in the end zone for the win as time expired.

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Iowa beats Michigan with a game-winning TD as time expires

When the 91-yard winning drive began, ESPN Analytics gave the Wolverines a 96.3% chance of winning. That number rose to 98.6% with 11 seconds left when Iowa reached the Michigan 45-yard line. The game was effectively over.

None of this does Western Michigan any good -- in fact, WMU benefits from Michigan's success through the transition property -- but there was something karmic about the way it all went down. Just weeks after escaping on the final play against WMU through improbable circumstances, the Wolverines found themselves on the other side.

Sagapolutele's regression

Coming into the season, Cal fans were justifiably optimistic. The university made a larger commitment to football. New coach Tosh Lupoi, a Cal alum, brought in a fresh wave of energy and more talent seemed to be on its way to Berkeley. But perhaps more than those things, it was because of the return of sophomore quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. After JKS burst on the scene as a true freshman last year, displaying NFL arm talent and physical gifts, the clear expectation was that Cal's offense would be exciting to watch -- especially after an upgrade to the receiving corps.

Through four games, though, the Golden Bears have been a tough watch. They have no offensive identity. They have been dominated up front and not only has JKS failed to take a step forward, but he has also regressed. His QBR against FBS teams is 48.3 (down from 61.8 last year). His completion percentage is down 5% to just 58.7. His yards per attempt are down 1.5 to 5.5. Any way to measure his play, it's worse than a year ago.

It's all been a deflating development for a program that was trending in the right direction in the offseason.

When Lupoi hired Jordan Somerville to be the team's offensive coordinator, it was a curious decision considering Somerville had never been a coordinator, having served as an assistant quarterbacks coach with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the past three years. Prior to that, he was an analyst at Oregon and a running backs coach at New Mexico. Hiring a first-time coordinator is always a gamble, but the Bears aren't in a place where Somerville can learn and grow on the job. They need to be able to make use of Sagapolutele's talent now -- or it's hard to see why he would return. It's one thing to stay in Berkeley at a discount if he believes he is being developed properly, but why would he stay to play in an offense this dysfunctional?

After the offense was held without a touchdown against a Clemson team a few weeks removed from allowing 51 points, Lupoi expressed confidence in Somerville, saying the two would go back through every unsuccessful play in an effort to determine where the offense can improve.

"That's what I love about Jordan Somerville," Lupoi said. "I have full faith that he's going to be right there with me dissecting every play that occurred that we didn't win. ... We've got the players to do it, and we've got a great staff, so really searching for where we'll put our players in the best possible situation for success."

But if they can't find a solution quickly, it's not unreasonable to look at other changes. Nick Rolovich is on the staff. He was around last year when JKS broke out and has been a successful coordinator at multiple stops. Do they lean back into more of what they did last year? Do they change playcallers this quickly? It's all reasonable to consider.

The closing bell

Buy: UCLA

After two years coaching at James Madison, Bob Chesney has immediately turned around the fortunes of a downtrodden Big Ten program. Where have we seen this before? The Bruins have won all four of their games comfortably and have topped 50 points in their first two conference games. They have a bye before a trip to Oregon on Oct. 10, where a win could put a spotlight on the Bruins in a way they haven't experienced in years.

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UCLA Bruins vs. Maryland Terrapins: Full Highlights

Sell: Oklahoma

After grinding through a victory against New Mexico, the Sooners didn't look like they belonged on the same field with Georgia. It's not exactly what they were looking for headed into the Red River Rivalry against Texas on Oct. 10.

Buy: Utah

The Utes are 4-0 with four lopsided wins, the latest a 31-17 victory against Iowa State to open Big 12 play. They don't have Texas Tech on the schedule and don't face BYU until Nov. 7. The expectation here is that the Utes will be 8-0 headed into that rivalry game.

Hold: Georgia

The Dawgs treated Oklahoma like a Group of 6 team to move to 4-0. With all due respect to Vanderbilt Commodores next week, the trip to Alabama on Oct. 10, looks like the first real test on Georgia's schedule.

Sell: San Diego State

Moving to the Pac-12 represented a new era for the Aztecs -- one in which they hoped to routinely rank among the best Group of 6 teams. Well, that's not going to be the case this year. After losing to James Madison last week, they got routed by Toledo on Saturday, meaning that before even playing a conference game, mediocrity is the most likely pursuit.

Buy: Wake Forest

The only blemish on Wake's résumé (3-1) came against Miami, bringing Jake Dickert's record to 12-5 since taking over prior to last season. Could the Deacs be looking at a 10-win season? They've only reached that twice in their history (2006 and 2021), but it's on the table after taking down No. 16 Louisville 30-27.