ANALYSIS: Taraba 2027: Kefas, Bwacha, others and the battle ahead

The 2027 governorship election promises to be a keen contest in Taraba State, with political parties confirming their candidates, and influential politicians forming new alliances.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has displayed the particulars of 19 candidates, making the forthcoming contest one of the most crowded in the state’s recent political history.

The prominent ones are incumbent Governor Agbu Kefas of the All Progressives Congress (APC), former senator Emmanuel Bwacha of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and former Senator Abubakar Tutare of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

There are also former federal lawmaker Danjuma Shiddi, popularly known as Danji SS, of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Jerome Nyameh of the Accord Party and Mohammed Yahaya of the National Democratic Congress (NDC).

The task they face is onerous: build a statewide coalition, communicate with voters across Taraba’s three senatorial districts so as to convince an electorate that will ultimately judge both the incumbent’s record and the opposition’s promise of change.

The protagonist in the contest is the sitting governor, Mr Kefas, whose political journey has added an unusual dimension to the 2027 race.

Mr Kefas won the 2023 poll on the PDP platform before defecting to the APC.

Mr Bwacha, who contested that election as the APC candidate, is now flying the PDP flag.

The partisan switches have altered the political equation dramatically and transformed the contest.

In 2023, INEC declared Mr Kefas winner with 302,614 votes, against the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate, Muhammad Yahaya, who polled 202,277 and Mr Bwacha who got 142,502.

Mr Yahaya is now the NDC candidate, his movement mirroring that of the former leader and presidential candidate of the NNPP, Rabiu Kwankwaso.

For Mr Kefas, the task is to convince voters that he has done enough in office since 2023 to earn another term.

The opposition candidates have to persuade the same voters that Taraba needs a change of government.

Mr Bwacha has already made the performance of the Kefas administration the centrepiece of his campaign.

When he declared his intention to run in April, Mr Bwacha said the poor performance of the administration compelled him to return to the race.

He rated the administration low in infrastructure development, economic management, and transparency; and decried what he described as worsening hardship in the state.

In August, the PDP flagbearer challenged the governor to identify any project worth at least ₦10 billion executed by his administration, saying he would withdraw from the race if Mr Kefas named one.

The challenge was clearly designed to turn the election into a referendum on the governor’s record.

But the Kefas administration and its supporters have defended the governor’s stewardship record.

They disputed opposition claim that Taraba is burdened with more than ₦1.2 trillion in debt.

That dispute has produced one of the clearest examples of why voters need to separate political rhetoric from verifiable evidence.

The Debt Management Office’s latest published data shows Taraba’s domestic debt at about ₦80.92 billion as of 31 March 2026. The state government had earlier cited DMO figures showing domestic debt of about ₦85.51 billion as of December 2025.

The figures do not, by themselves, settle every question about the state’s finances because domestic debt is only one component of public liabilities.

But they demonstrate the importance of examining official fiscal records rather than relying solely on campaign claims.

The same standard applies to the debate over infrastructure.

The Kefas administration had launched a statewide road programme, while its 2026 budget allocated substantial funds to roads and transport infrastructure.

Mr Bwacha, however, argues that government spending should be judged by its visible impact on ordinary Tarabans.

That disagreement may become one of the defining issues of the election.

A government can point to billions of naira allocated to projects, while an opposition candidate can argue that voters are yet to see sufficient improvement in their daily lives.

The electorate will ultimately decide which assessment is more convincing.

A citizen group, Concerned Taraba Citizens, also accused Mr Kefas of failing to fulfil 42 campaign promises he made in 2023.

The group’s leader, Yakubu Haruna, said the alleged unfulfilled promises cover roads and transportation, education, healthcare, water supply, electricity, employment and workers’ welfare.

Among the projects listed by the group are the proposed dualisation of the Jalingo-Wukari, Bali-Gembu and Zing-Wukari roads, as well as the proposed construction of the Jalingo-Karim Lamido, Wukari-Chinkai, Donga-Bentaje-Tunari and Lafiya-Jen roads.

The group also raised questions about water and electricity supply, youth employment and the settlement of outstanding salaries, pensions and gratuities.

For Mr Kefas, the burden is not simply to dismiss his critics but to demonstrate what his administration has delivered, what remains unfinished and why.

For the challengers, it is not enough to catalogue the incumbent’s shortcomings. They must demonstrate that they can deliver what they say Mr Kefas failed to deliver.

That is where the 2027 election can become consequential.

It could become a referendum on whether Tarabans are satisfied with the direction of their state since 2023.

Mr Kefas enjoys the advantage of incumbency.

He has the visibility of a sitting governor, access to the governing party’s structures and the opportunity to campaign on policies and projects implemented during his first term.

His movement into the APC also places him within the political structure of the federal ruling party, potentially giving his campaign another argument: how alignment of the state with federal powers has improved Taraba’s access to federal support and investment.

But incumbency is a double-edged sword.

The same office that gives a governor visibility also makes his record easier to scrutinise.

A challenger can campaign largely on what he intends to do.

An incumbent must explain what he has already done.

That is why the competing claims over infrastructure, debt, employment, education and public spending are likely to remain central to the election.

Mr Bwacha’s political history gives him familiarity with the state’s political terrain.

A former senator representing Taraba South District, he has spent years building political networks within the state and at the national level.

But his 2023 performance also provides his opponents with ammunition.

He finished third behind Mr Kefas and Mr Yahaya.

For Mr Bwacha, the challenge is therefore not only outpunching Mr Kefas.

He must demonstrate that the political coalition behind his current PDP candidacy is stronger than the one that failed in 2023.

His choice of Aminu Zakari as running mate is part of that effort to construct a ticket with statewide appeal.

Mr Zakari is a civil engineer and procurement professional with more than 14 years of public service experience.

But political experience and networks do not automatically translate into victory.

Mr Bwacha must build a coalition capable of reaching voters across the three senatorial districts and 16 local government areas.

The same applies to Mr Kefas.

His defection to the APC must strengthen his political base.

The election will therefore test not only party structures but also the durability of personal political networks.

Beyond the APC and PDP, Mr Shiddi, popularly known as Danji SS, represents another attempt to challenge the traditional dominance of the two major parties.

The former member of the House of Representatives is contesting on the APGA platform and has positioned himself as an alternative to the established political order.

His candidacy could become significant if it attracts voters dissatisfied the major parties.

But recognition alone does not win a governorship election.

Mr Shiddi would need a structure capable of reaching voters across the state’s 16 local government areas, wards and polling units.

Mr Tutare represents another potential complication for the major parties.

The former senator is the ADC candidate and brings political experience to a party seeking to establish itself as a serious alternative.

Mr Nyameh of the Accord Party and Mr Yahaya of the NDC are also among the candidates who could influence the political debate, even if their chances of winning are considered slim.

Mr Yahaya is particularly familiar to Taraba voters, having finished second in 2023 with more than 200,000 votes.

That previous performance means he cannot be dismissed as just a minor-party contender.

Third-party candidates can affect an election without winning it.

They can attract protest votes, expose weaknesses in the campaigns of major parties and alter margins in closely contested local government areas.

That is why the 2027 election may not be a two-horse race.

But beneath the contest among candidates lies a deeper question about political succession in Taraba.

Who determines who succeeds a governor?

The electorate, political parties or influential political figures?

That question brings the issue of godfatherism into the debate.

Political mentorship is not inherently undemocratic.

Experienced politicians can mentor younger leaders, mobilise support for them, resolve disputes and help build political structures.

The danger begins when mentorship becomes control.

When political sponsors determine candidates regardless of the preferences of party members, or when access to political office becomes dependent on personal loyalty, institutions become weaker.

The issue is therefore not whether influential politicians should participate in politics.

They should.

The question is whether their influence strengthens democratic institutions or substitutes them.

That question is particularly relevant in an election where political defections, alliances and endorsements are already reshaping the field.

A candidate should not become the preferred choice simply because a powerful politician has endorsed him.

Nor should an incumbent assume that control of a party structure automatically translates into voter loyalty.

The electorate remains the final political institution.

The same principle should apply to perceptions of nepotism.

In a diverse state such as Taraba, citizens pay close attention to appointments, contracts and access to government.

When citizens believe political opportunities are concentrated within particular families, communities or political networks, confidence in government can decline.

The 2027 election should force every major candidate to answer basic questions about governance.

How will jobs be created for young Tarabans?

How will agriculture be transformed into a stronger source of income and employment?

What will be done differently in education and healthcare?

How will roads and other infrastructure be improved?

How will insecurity be addressed?

How will the state attract private investment?

And how will public resources be protected?

These questions are more important than the size of a candidate’s political entourage.

They are also more important than the number of endorsements a candidate receives.

For Mr Kefas, the burden is to defend his record.

For Messrs Bwacha, Tutare, Shiddi, Nyameh, Yahaya and the other challengers, the burden is to demonstrate that replacing the incumbent would produce better governance.

That makes the 2027 contest, at its core, a battle between performance and promise.

But it is also a battle over credibility.

If Mr Bwacha says the state is heavily indebted; voters deserve evidence.

If the Kefas administration says it has delivered significant projects, voters deserve evidence of those achievements.

If a citizens’ group says 42 campaign promises remain unfulfilled, the administration should identify what has been completed, what is ongoing and what has not been implemented.

If the governor’s supporters cite road projects and other infrastructure as evidence of performance, those projects should be assessed not only by their budgetary value but also by their completion status, quality and impact on communities.

The campaign should therefore become a contest of records rather than slogans.

The same standard should apply to Mr Bwacha.

His promise to rebuild Taraba around agriculture, education, healthcare, infrastructure and employment will need to be matched by clear plans, funding mechanisms and measurable targets.

The electorate should not be asked to choose simply between dissatisfaction with one government and nostalgia for another.

It should be presented with credible alternatives.

The 2027 election also presents Taraba’s younger politicians with an important test.

If political advancement depends entirely on proximity to powerful individuals, young people may conclude that competence, ideas and hard work are less valuable than political connections.

That would be a damaging lesson for a state that needs a new generation of leaders.

As the campaign gathers momentum, voters will have to look beyond rallies, defections, endorsements and political slogans.

They will have to examine the records of Messrs Kefas, Bwacha, Tutare, Shiddi, Nyameh, Yahaya and the other candidates.

They should ask who can build a government that works beyond political factions.

Who can unite Taraba’s diverse communities?

Who has a credible economic plan?

Who can improve security?

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Who can create opportunities for young people?

Who can manage public resources transparently?

And, perhaps most importantly, who can turn campaign promises into measurable results?

The answers should not be determined by the identity of a candidate’s political sponsor.

Taraba belongs to its citizens, not to any governor, former officeholder, political party, financier or godfather.

The 2027 governorship election will test whether Taraba’s political system is becoming more competitive, accountable and institution-driven, or whether political networks, personal influence and patronage will continue to determine the state’s political succession.