Brazil's Lula reelected to a historic fourth term in runoff vote

Pollsters said higher-than-expected turnout appeared to have boosted Lula. Andrei Roman, CEO of pollster AtlasIntel, told Reuters that Lula would be re-elected.

 Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva overtook right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday's runoff, with half of the votes counted and ballots from left-leaning states in Lula's northeastern stronghold starting to pour in.

Pollsters said higher-than-expected turnout appeared to have boosted Lula. Andrei Roman, CEO of pollster AtlasIntel, told Reuters that Lula would be re-elected.

The federal electoral court has yet to call a victor, but Lula allies were already claiming victory on social media.

Brazil's conservative candidates typically perform well early in the count, with leftists' performance improving as votes from poorer, populous states in the northeast start arriving later.

Lula started strongly, and although Bolsonaro overtook him, Lula snapped back with around 50% of votes counted by 8:30 p.m. in Brasília.

This comes after Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, who was formerly Lula's lawyer, accepted a request by Lula's campaign to extend voting, pointing to public transportation issues in three cities in the state of Bahia.

Zanin's decision landed right around the election's 5 p.m. Brasília time cutoff, creating confusion as some polling stations had already closed.

In a subsequent ruling, Zanin said those stations would remain shut, allowing authorities to begin tallying those votes, but that polling stations that had not closed after the official cutoff could keep receiving voters for an additional two hours.

Zanin's ruling led the electoral court, or TSE, to pause the count for two hours.

Pause adds uncertainty

The unexpected voting extension injects uncertainty into a Brazilian electoral process still grappling with the fallout from 2022, when Jair Bolsonaro refused to concede defeat to Lula. His supporters later invaded government buildings in protest against the result, and Bolsonaro received a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup.

Two legal experts told Reuters the extension of voting hours and allegations around disrupted public transportation could draw legal challenges.

“Depending on the election result, there is a possibility that the losing side might attempt to contest the outcome, arguing that many people were unable to vote even with the extended deadline," said Vera Chemim, a constitutional lawyer in São Paulo.

The senator's brother Eduardo Bolsonaro, speaking on a live stream on his YouTube channel, questioned why the Supreme Court had ruled in a process overseen by the country's federal electoral court: "Strange, isn’t it?" he said. "It’s hard to imagine what the legal basis for this could possibly be. It doesn’t inspire credibility.”

Lula had asked electoral authorities to extend voting in at least nine states after his campaign alleged some officials reduced election-day public transportation, impacting voters' ability to get to the polls.

Earlier on Sunday, a court in Bahia, a Lula stronghold in the Northeast, ordered the arrest of a top transportation official in the city of Salvador over allegations that he directed a reduction in the city’s bus fleet.

In comments before Zanin's decision, Lula said "something abominable is happening" in this election.

Flavio Bolsonaro had also asked for voting to be extended in at least three states, citing bad weather.

US watches Brazil's election

Lula and his allies see Sunday’s runoff as a chance to stem Latin America's conservative drift.

Reuters on Saturday revealed a campaign within Trump's State Department to help get the Bolsonaros back in power.

Trump has so far declined to endorse a candidate. Asked on Sunday who he hoped would win, Trump declined to say.

"I don’t want to get into that, but we are watching," he told reporters in Washington.