Tinubu, El-Rufai and 2027: When prosecution begins to look like persecution, By Kehinde Kolawole

Would El-Rufai be treated the same way today if he were still one of President Tinubu’s strongest political allies? That is a question the government cannot simply dismiss. Since leaving the APC political circle, El-Rufai has become increasingly critical of President Tinubu and has aligned himself with opposition forces seeking to challenge Tinubu in the 2027 election. That political reality changes the way Nigerians will naturally view his detention.

There is a deep political irony in what is happening today in Nigeria. Nasir El-Rufai, former two-term governor of Kaduna State, former minister of the Federal Capital Territory and one of the major figures in the formation and rise of the All Progressives Congress, now finds himself detained and facing prosecution under the same political administration he worked hard to help bring to power.

Whatever anyone thinks about El-Rufai and his record in public office, his role in the emergence of Bola Ahmed Tinubu as president in 2023 cannot simply be ignored.

El-Rufai was one of the influential northern political figures who supported the argument that power should move back to southern Nigeria after eight years of Muhammadu Buhari. That position was based on the informal political arrangement usually referred to as zoning between the North and South.

Personally, I strongly disagree with zoning. Nigeria has too many serious problems for the presidency to be treated as something that must rotate between regions. Competence, capacity and character should matter more than where a candidate comes from.

But whether I agree with zoning or not, that was the political reality of the 2023 election, and El-Rufai played an important role in making sure that Tinubu received significant support from northern political leaders.

He campaigned vigorously for Tinubu and became one of the most visible northern politicians defending his candidacy.

When the Buhari administration introduced the controversial naira redesign policy only a few months before the 2023 election, El-Rufai became one of the loudest opponents of that policy. Kaduna, Kogi and Zamfara states eventually challenged the Federal Government at the Supreme Court.

The currency redesign created severe cash shortages across the country and made life difficult for millions of Nigerians. At the time, many of Tinubu’s supporters believed that the policy was politically motivated and was designed, at least in part, to weaken Tinubu’s chances in the election.

El-Rufai stood firmly with Tinubu during that period.

Their political relationship was also clear before the election.

During Tinubu’s appearance at Chatham House in London in December 2022, Tinubu famously asked members of his team to respond to some of the questions directed at him. El-Rufai was one of those people. The incident caused controversy in Nigeria because many people expected Tinubu himself to answer the questions. But it also showed how much confidence Tinubu placed in El-Rufai at the time.

El-Rufai was not simply another politician sitting in the audience. He was part of the political team Tinubu trusted enough to call upon publicly. Tinubu himself had also publicly encouraged El-Rufai to reconsider his plans after leaving office as Kaduna governor and to join his administration. Considering all of this history, it is difficult not to ask how yesterday’s trusted political ally has become today’s detainee.

However, this article is not an argument that El-Rufai should be protected from prosecution simply because he helped Tinubu become president.

That would be wrong.

If El-Rufai committed crimes while serving in government, he should answer for them like every other Nigerian. Helping someone win an election should never become a form of immunity from prosecution. Political friendship should not protect anybody from the law. But political disagreement should not become a reason for persecution either. That is where the present situation becomes troubling.

The bail conditions imposed on El-Rufai in one of his cases have raised serious questions. A court granted him bail, but among the conditions was a requirement for a surety who is a senior federal civil servant at Grade Level 17 and who owns landed property in Maitama or Asokoro in Abuja, along with other financial and property documentation.

On paper, that is bail.

In reality, Nigerians have every right to ask whether bail that is extremely difficult to satisfy is really bail at all.

A person can technically be granted bail and still remain in detention because the conditions are so demanding that meeting them becomes almost impossible. At that point, the difference between being denied bail and being granted unreasonable bail becomes very small. It is also important to acknowledge that El-Rufai is facing more than one legal proceeding, including a separate case in Kaduna where bail was refused. His continued detention therefore cannot be blamed entirely on one set of bail conditions.

Still, when all of these circumstances are looked at together, it becomes reasonable to ask whether this is still simply prosecution or whether it is beginning to look more like punishment before conviction.

That distinction matters.

Nigeria has a long political history in which governments have been accused of using state institutions against their political opponents. Because of that history, Nigerians should always be concerned whenever an important opposition figure is detained for a long period, especially when that detention happens as another major election is approaching.

This should not be about whether anybody likes El-Rufai.

I have my own disagreements with many of his political positions and decisions.

The real question is much simpler.

Would El-Rufai be treated the same way today if he were still one of President Tinubu’s strongest political allies? That is a question the government cannot simply dismiss. Since leaving the APC political circle, El-Rufai has become increasingly critical of President Tinubu and has aligned himself with opposition forces seeking to challenge Tinubu in the 2027 election. That political reality changes the way Nigerians will naturally view his detention.

This does not automatically prove that President Tinubu personally ordered his detention.

It also does not prove that every allegation against El-Rufai is false.

But Nigerians are not wrong to look at the timing, the length of the detention, the bail conditions and El-Rufai’s growing role in the opposition and ask difficult questions.

Governments should expect those questions.

That brings us directly to the 2027 election.

My concern is that El-Rufai’s continued detention may have the practical effect of removing an influential opposition politician from the political field during one of the most important periods leading into the next presidential election. Whether that is the official intention or not, that is what prolonged detention can achieve.

If he remains in detention as Nigeria moves closer to 2027, it will become increasingly difficult for the Tinubu administration to convince many Nigerians that politics has nothing to do with what is happening. There is a simple way for the government and the justice system to address that concern.

Present the evidence.

Prosecute the cases openly.

Allow El-Rufai to defend himself.

Where the law allows bail, the conditions should be reasonable and realistically achievable.

If he is guilty, let the courts convict him based on evidence and let him face whatever punishment the law provides.

Nobody should be above the law.

But nobody should be punished before conviction either.

If the real effect of this process is to keep one of Tinubu’s political opponents in detention until after the 2027 election, then Nigeria would be dealing with something much more serious than the legal problems of one former governor.

It would raise a much bigger question about whether the justice system is being used to influence the political space. That should concern every Nigerian, regardless of political party. The true test of the rule of law is not how a government treats its friends. Friends are usually treated well. The real test is how the state treats those who have fallen out of favour and become political opponents.

Nasir El-Rufai helped Bola Tinubu become president. That history should not protect him from legitimate prosecution. But it should not condemn him to endless detention either. He does not need political gratitude from President Tinubu. He needs a fair legal process. If there is evidence against him, prosecute him and prove the case. If there is not enough evidence to justify keeping him in detention, then the state should not use impossible bail conditions or prolonged legal processes to achieve indirectly what it cannot justify openly.

As Nigeria moves closer to the 2027 election, this case will continue to raise uncomfortable questions. And those questions are bigger than Nasir El-Rufai. They are about the kind of democracy Nigeria wants to become, the independence of its institutions and whether political power will continue to influence the administration of justice.

In the end, El-Rufai may be the man standing before the courts. But Nigeria’s commitment to the rule of law is also being tested.

Kehinde Kolawole is a business analyst. He writes on politics, public policy, technology, economics, and contemporary issues.