A year after Hastie’s warning, Taylor has a solid migration plan. Hanson has the voters

It’s been one year to the week since Liberal MP Andrew Hastie quit Sussan Ley’s frontbench to speak his mind on migration.

Hastie thought it was a hot-button issue that required a tough response from the Coalition to appease growing cynicism about the post-pandemic immigration surge. That turned out to be prescient.

I don’t need to spell out how much Australia’s political landscape has changed since then, particularly on the right, but the immigration debate has only gotten hotter. Through it all, the Coalition has been looking for its white whale: a credible migration policy that swims with the currents of conservative politics without sinking the economy

They finally made a go of it on Tuesday, when Opposition Leader Angus Taylor and outgoing home affairs spokesman Jonno Duniam released their plan to reduce immigration levels.

The Coalition have done their homework. Their presentation was far more detailed than the shambles former leader Peter Dutton took to the last election, which crumbled before his eyes during the campaign. Dutton committed to targets on the fly, then ruled visas in and out as questions came thick and fast, until there was no possible way for the arithmetic to make sense.

The sensible question for Taylor is whether his policy matches the numbers. The political question is whether it lands in parts of the electorate that have switched to One Nation, or comes too late to assist the opposition’s own political fortunes.

The Coalition is promising an overnight cut to net overseas migration, taking it from 292,000 to 100,000. In the fourth year, the target rises to 160,000.

Voters seeking quick answers now have three figures to compare. The Albanese government last month announced changes to arrive at net migration forecasts of 225,000. One Nation has decided it will take the country to negative migration levels and potential recession after weeks of backflips, forward flips and flip-outs from the far-right section of its support base.

The Coalition hopes its pitch strikes middle ground. The number is political, designed to shock and grab attention – the top line of Tuesday’s media release promised “the largest cut to immigration in Australian history”. The policy work is practical, trying to allay business concerns by reconfiguring the inflow towards fewer, higher skilled, higher tax-paying cohorts.

The Coalition’s solution is to reduce bridging visas and graduate visas while boosting the number of skilled workers. There are a few measures around the side to cut British backpackers, refugees and foreign students, which will be more contentious. Taylor and co say it is costed and budget-neutral, although they won’t release their calculations until closer to the next election.

Labor will do its best to neutralise immigration as a political issue, but it is locked in as a key battleground for 2028.

The Coalition is making a genuine play at policy that, in ordinary circumstances, should challenge the government. Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke has been urging the Coalition to get serious by naming which visas it would cut and the economic impact. The Coalition has now done that.

The two visa classes the Coalition earmarked – temporary graduate visas (with exceptions for regions, health and education) and bridging visas – are fair areas to direct debate.

Temporary graduate visas, held by former students, have tripled from 90,000 before the pandemic to 270,000 today. Bridging visas, held by people waiting for a decision on their status, have more than doubled since. The backlog has gone from 190,000 to a record 440,000 – a clear sign the department is overwhelmed.

These issues were largely omitted from Burke’s speech last month, which focused on trimming the backpacker program and curtailing family visas for overseas students.

The opposition wants to cut both the bridging and graduate visa categories to next to nothing, to reduce temporary visa places in Australia by about 650,000 within four years. With that wriggle room, it will give out 100,000 more skilled visas.

Easier said than done. Immigration expert Abul Rizvi says it will be impossible to eliminate the bridging visa backlog at the pace the Coalition assumes, while exemptions for graduates will amount to far more than the 10,000 places the Coalition has budgeted to fill crucial roles in health, aged care and the regions.

All this makes the 100,000 figure implausible, he says, especially in a strong labour market. Deeper cuts to numbers of international students and Kiwis, who have been flocking across the Tasman, would be required to get close.

This brings us back to the politics. Taylor doesn’t need to execute these policies just yet. The 100,000 number is much lower than originally anticipated, at just one-third of the status quo, which demonstrates the Coalition wants to look as tough as possible on migration.

Thanks to the policy work, Taylor is much better equipped to answer questions than Dutton ever could. On Tuesday, he handled the heat capably.

But the issue might already be too hot. One Nation last month caved to uproar from its right flank, reverting to a widely panned short-term “net negative migration” policy rather than its more sensible proposal for a 130,000 net figure.

There’s a chance Pauline Hanson flames out closer to the election under more scrutiny, but meanwhile, she will continue to outplay Taylor in rhetoric. The opposition’s policies may be fitting for a party of government, but less so for that contest.

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