Why US deal on Greenland could narrow China’s Arctic engagement

The new US-Denmark-Greenland security agreement could narrow China’s room to engage in the Arctic – particularly in resource-rich Greenland – and potentially push Beijing closer to Russia, Chinese experts on the matter said.

According to observers, the deal – signed on Tuesday – could have the broader effect of accelerating the securitisation of the Arctic and making Western Arctic states more cautious about cooperation with China. But it would be unlikely to significantly disrupt China’s existing Arctic cooperation with Russia, which is largely centred far from Greenland.

The deal comes eight months after US President Donald Trump began pressuring Denmark and Greenland – an autonomous Danish territory – over the island’s future, including threats involving tariffs and military force. It expands the US military role on the island while leaving Greenland under Danish control.

The agreement comes at a time when the US and its allies are seeking to build their own rare earth supply chains to counter China’s near-monopoly on the critical minerals, a prime source of leverage that continues to loom over talks between Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.