All South Africans want for Christmas is no interest rate hike

South Africans could get some early Christmas relief if the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) leaves interest rates unchanged – or announces an unexpected cut – at its final Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2026 on Thursday, 19 November.

At the time of publishing, the decision is still uncertain. Inflation risks have kept the possibility of another increase on the table, but temporary fuel tax relief and expectations that some price pressures will ease have strengthened the case for holding rates steady.

SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago has said the bank’s modelling suggests current policy settings should bring inflation back towards its 3% target once the conflict in the Middle East ends.

The bank raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% at its most recent meeting in September.

The prime lending rate is now 10.75%, increasing borrowing costs for households with variable-rate home loans and other debt.

Fuel relief offers some breathing room

The temporary fuel tax relief package announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana in his recent medium-term budget has improved the near-term inflation outlook.

The relief is expected to ease pressure on motorists in November.

However, uncertainty around international oil prices and the rand means fuel costs could still push up transport, production and other business expenses.

The Reserve Bank has warned that it must prevent an initial price shock from spreading into broader inflation through wage-setting, expectations and business pricing.

Why rates could stay unchanged

If fuel prices stabilise and the impact of higher costs fades, inflation could move closer to the SARB’s target during 2027. That could reduce the need for another rate increase.

But the decision will depend on whether policymakers believe inflation is easing or whether price pressures risk becoming entrenched. The bank has said it will assess the data and risks at each meeting.

For borrowers, an unchanged rate would mean no additional increase in repayments from the November decision.

With the vast majority of South Africans currently drowning under financial pressure – with increases to medical aid tariffs and the like kicking in on 1 January 2027 – news of ‘no interest rate change’ will certainly be welcomed over a hike.

bond repayment examples

At the current prime lending rate of 10.75%, monthly repayments over 20 years assuming no deposit, are:

Bond	Current
R1 million	R10 152
R1.5 million	R15 228
R1 695 257	R17 211
R2 million	R20 305
R2.5 million	R25 381
R3 million	R30 457

Dates and outcomes of SARB MPC meetings in 2026

Month	Date	Outcome
January	29 January	No change
March	26 March	No change
May	28 May	25 bps hike
July	23 July	No change
September	23 September	25 bps hike
November	19 November	TBA